Editor's Note: A seminar titled "Advancing world common modernizations with Chinese modernization: Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period" was held in Beijing on April 17. It was co-hosted by the Academy of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, Renmin University of China and RUC Press, in collaboration with the China Public Diplomacy Association. At the seminar, Wang Yiwei's book The Global Commitment of Chinese Modernization: Building a Community with a Shared Future for Humanity was released. Four experts shared their insights on the subject.

Navigating external risks toward modernization

By Wang Fan

With the world economy in recession, international financial markets in turmoil, global exchanges constrained, globalization facing headwinds, protectionism and unilateralism on the rise, and geopolitical risks escalating, China is pursuing modernization in an increasingly uncertain world. To ensure sustainability, it is crucial to maintain strategic resolve and guard against systemic risks in the global context.

External risks are no longer isolated frictions; they are interconnected and spreading along industry chains. These include technological dominance, bans on chips, and restrictions on artificial intelligence computing power imposed by high-tech nations, all aimed at confining China to the lower end of global industry, supply, and value chains.

Moreover, moves toward decoupling, "de-risking", and "friend-shoring" aim to undermine China's role as the world's factory. Heightened geopolitical risks can threaten shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Malacca, potentially disrupting the supply of energy, food and raw materials.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the global recovery remains sluggish, with persistent inflationary pressures and protectionism, shrinking external demand, and stalled traditional growth drivers of export-oriented models.

In emerging domains such as cyberspace, the deep sea, polar regions, outer space and biosecurity and in areas that lack clear legal and regulatory frameworks, China faces strategic encirclement and an overstretched concept of national security.

Several factors contribute to these challenges. Chinese modernization — an initiative of unprecedented scale involving 1.4 billion people — represents a reconfiguration of global resources. Sluggish growth in the global existing markets has heightened anxiety among traditional powers concerned about the potential erosion of their advantages.

At the same time, the achievements of Chinese modernization, which demonstrate that developing countries can independently choose their own paths to development, are viewed by some major powers as a "systemic challenge". Moreover, modernization has inherent vulnerabilities. Modern and integrated social systems depend heavily on energy, information, and logistics, making them far more susceptible to massive disruptions than pre-modern societies.

In response, three significant shifts are underway in China. First, the external pressure in the high-tech sector has reduced reliance on foreign technology and fostered nationwide endogenous innovation, support for domestic substitutes and the return of scientific research talent.

Second, concerns over issues such as energy security have heightened awareness of the need to build strategic depth, aligning with national strategic reserves, advancing the development of China's western region and cultivating new quality productive forces.

Third, skepticism about the fairness of the Western financial system is growing, as evidenced by concerns over asset security following arbitrary sanctions.

Confronted with these pressures, the country must shift its development drivers.

The first should be self-reliance. Building greater resilience and the capacity to withstand stress will allow Chinese modernization to take firm root.

Chinese modernization is transitioning from a reactive response to proactive evolution, reflecting a collective endeavor in human advancement.

Strategies to address risks include maintaining full control over technological and industrial systems to counter external technological encirclement. Establishing a strong foundation for energy and food security through diversified alternatives is also crucial. Ultimately, effective crisis management and strategic resolve are necessary to prevent sporadic regional conflicts from escalating into a war that could derail the global modernization process.

Modernization is a marathon.

For China, intensifying external risks serve as a crucible for growth. The key lies in leveraging the current period of peace to move toward self-sustaining development.

Wang Fan is the former president of China Foreign Affairs University.