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Energy crunch exposes Manila's erratic China policy

By Ding Duo | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2026-04-10 17:06
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An aerial drone photo taken on Nov 14, 2025 shows a panoramic view of China's Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. [Photo/Xinhua]

The energy crisis triggered by turmoil in the Middle East and blockages in the Strait of Hormuz continues to hammer the Philippines, laying bare the Marcos Jr administration's increasingly erratic approach toward China and the South China Sea. Manila continues to stir up trouble at sea even as domestic fuel shortages and mounting public hardship push it to seek talks with Beijing. The result is a classic case of wanting to have it both ways, revealing a government that is fundamentally confused about its own interests and woefully short on strategic vision.

Take the administration's latest domestic moves. Executive Order No 111 orders the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority to draw up a fresh official map that unilaterally renames 131 reefs, shoals and islands within the so-called "Kalayaan Island Group". Every government office, state firm and school must now adopt these fabricated names in documents, textbooks and research papers. The goal is obvious: to lock the illegal claims into law, maps and the minds of the next generation so it feels like established fact. However, none of it changes the reality on the ground. China's sovereignty over the Nansha Islands is backed by history and law that no domestic decree can erase. The "Kalayaan" label itself was an act of occupation and renaming that carries zero international legal weight.

Worse still is the on-the-water escalation. On April 9, the Philippine Coast Guard inaugurated its first dedicated South China Sea command center on Thitu Island. What was once a minor outpost under Palawan has been transformed into a headquarters overseeing 68,000 square kilometers of ocean. About 400 civilians live there illegally. Officials made clear they will station a senior officer, keep patrol ships on permanent duty and add more enforcement vessels, all under the banner of "defending the Kalayaan Island Group". The timing could not be more telling: the ribbon-cutting occurred just as diplomatic channels were showing faint signs of easing. It sends a blunt message — talk peace in public, but push confrontation in private.

Beijing has shown considerable restraint for the sake of regional calm, consistently offering bilateral talks to manage differences. Manila has mistaken that patience as permission to push further. It continues to reinforce illegal footholds and manufacture a "China threat" narrative to hide its role as the provocateur. China, of course, maintains every right to defend its interests and will tighten its responses where necessary.

The disconnect with the home front is glaring. As global oil prices send diesel costs soaring, ordinary fishermen are bearing the brunt. Groups such as PAMALAKAYA report that operating expenses for a single trip have jumped 60 percent, leaving many small operators tied up at port for weeks. The government's one-off 3,000-peso fuel handout barely lasts three days. While families struggle, the administration pours resources into maritime grandstanding. The contrast makes its "people-first" talk ring hollow.

This domestic pain has prompted a few clear-headed voices to speak up. A group of retired senior diplomats — former ambassadors and assistant foreign secretaries — recently put forward a practical proposal for joint oil-and-gas development. Their February 2026 paper suggests a partnership where a Philippine company holds 60 percent of voting shares and a Chinese partner holds 40 percent plus 20 percent non-voting preferred stock. They delivered the document to the foreign secretary just as the Middle East crisis deepened, warning that clinging too tightly to Washington turns Manila into a disposable pawn. Only real cooperation with China, they argue, can ease the energy and livelihood crunch.

Official reaction has been predictably lukewarm. Malacanang says it will "protect core interests" while leaving the door "slightly open". Hardliners wasted no time pushing back. The armed forces spokesman called China an unreliable partner; Antonio Carpio, the driving force behind the 2016 arbitration, labelled any deal a "national suicide", conveniently ignoring the empty fuel tanks and idle boats of ordinary Filipinos. It serves factional scores and foreign backers more than the national interest.

At root, Manila's confusion stems from its deepening reliance on outside powers. Under US defence pacts and economic frameworks, Washington is now building large ammunition plants inside the country, turning the Philippines from a mere logistics hub into a full forward base bristling with missiles, sensors and sea-lane choke points. European observers have already pointed out that these sites would become prime targets in any clash, putting Philippine cities and supply chains directly in the crosshairs.

Japan's moves are no less telling. For the first time since World War II, Japanese troops will set foot on Philippine soil for the biggest-ever Balikatan exercise. Tokyo is supplying radars, patrol gear and faster access agreements while Philippine commanders openly call Japan a "core partner" against supposed Chinese "coercion". The historical blind spot is astonishing: Imperial Japan's wartime crimes in the Philippines, including the "comfort women" tragedy, have never been properly acknowledged or compensated. Local civic groups have protested, yet the Marcos government presses ahead, trading national memory for foreign military cover.

In the end, what Manila presents as clever pragmatism looks from Beijing like simple opportunism — signaling cooperation one day, reinforcing Thitu the next, calling for calm while inviting outsiders to stage war games. A government that cannot make up its mind cannot be trusted at the table. Diplomatic channels may still paper over daily incidents, but hardliners at home, fresh military deployments and blind loyalty to the discredited 2016 arbitration make any real policy shift unlikely. Even as ASEAN chair, Manila would rather move hundreds of meetings online to save fuel than trim its expensive joint drills with the United States.

The pattern is painfully clear. The Philippines lacks the strength for outright confrontation with China yet refuses to drop its provocative tactics. It swings between defiance and entreaty, hoping to extract benefits from both sides. In the process it is burning through domestic goodwill, deepening its own energy woes and turning itself into a permanent pawn in someone else's contest. The people who will ultimately foot the bill are not the politicians in Manila but the fishermen staring at empty tanks and idle boats. Without a genuine change of course, these repeated zig-zags will only leave the country more isolated, more vulnerable and no closer to solving the very crises it helped create.

The author is the director of the Center for International and Regional Studies, National Institute for South China Sea Studies.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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