China is moving to optimize the allocation of educational resources in response to significant demographic changes, with the student population set to peak and plummet at different educational levels over the coming decade, according to a senior official.

Huai Jinpeng, minister of education, said that while the number of primary school students in the country peaked in 2023, the middle school population is expected to peak next year, the high school population in 2029 and the population of higher education age in 2032.

In response to these demographic changes, the ministry plans to prioritize educational resources for regions experiencing significant student population growth and school placement pressures, Huai said in an interview with China Central Television last month.

The ministry also aims to expand educational facilities in urban areas that have a high concentration of school-age populations, he added.

According to official statistics, 16.16 million children were enrolled in primary schools in China last year, with the total primary student population dropping by approximately 2.6 million from 2023.

The recommendations for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), which were adopted in October at the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, called for improving the mechanism for allocating educational resources in line with demographic changes.

The rate of decline in the student population has varied in different provincial-level regions. According to news outlet Sohu.com, provinces such as Henan, Hebei, Jiangxi, Heilongjiang, Hunan and Jilin have each seen their number of primary students drop by more than 100,000 in the past decade.

In Northeast China, the situation has been particularly acute, with 60 percent of primary schools shutting down in the past 10 years due to a lack of students.

In stark contrast, Guangdong province stands out, having added 2.72 million primary students in the past decade. To cope with such growth, it has made available nearly one million compulsory education places in the past three years.

Efficient utilization

These demographic shifts directly impact student-teacher ratios. Last year, the ratios in kindergartens and primary schools reached their most favorable levels in years, with one teacher for every 12.7 students in kindergartens and one teacher for every 16.1 students in primary schools. While this allowed teachers to focus more on individual students, it also raised concerns about efficient resource utilization.

Teacher redeployment and downsizing are underway in many areas. In Ezhou, Hubei province, 500 teaching posts were reallocated from primary to middle schools, and the total number of posts was capped. In Hegang, Heilongjiang province, 206 school staff members were reassigned to other positions after a competitive reemployment process.

Gao Hang, vice-dean of Renmin University of China's School of Education, emphasized the critical need to reform China's educational resource allocation in response to significant demographic changes, describing the task as "very urgent" for improving fiscal efficiency, especially in the current economic climate.

Gao pointed out that the student population peak in kindergartens, which occurred in 2020, has already led to excess capacity, particularly in the private sector. The wave of decline is now directly impacting primary schools and is expected to reach secondary schools in the coming years, he said. Gao warned against complacency in the higher education sector, noting that while the sector is still preparing for its peak, some universities — especially private ones — are already facing difficulties with student enrollment.

He urged institutions to shift from a model of rapid expansion to one focusing on quality for creating diverse and distinctive types of universities. He also identified the international student market as a crucial avenue for future growth.

Aspiration for better life

Gao acknowledged that a large-scale interprovincial movement of teaching staff is a complex challenge that may require coordination by central authorities.

While this may lead to some teachers undergoing retraining or transferring from primary to secondary schools, he expressed confidence that local governments are capable of intelligently managing the transition.

Gao said that on the one hand, education is impacted by population size, which pushes the system toward reform; on the other hand, education itself is a system that supports fertility, which calls for improvements in the quality and accessibility of services such as child care. When kindergartens become more affordable, young people are more likely to consider having children, he said.

"The education system should fundamentally transition from a scale-oriented model to one focused on efficiency and quality," Gao said.

"The future lies in providing diversified, high-quality and personalized education that meets the strategic needs of the nation, the demands of the technological era, and the public's aspiration for a better life," he added.

zoushuo@chinadaily.com.cn