Anticipation is building across Kenya’s agricultural export sector as China prepares to implement a zero-tariff policy on a wide range of African products from May 1.

For many, this is an unprecedented move that exporters say could redefine trade flows between the continent and the world’s second-largest economy. It is not just about lower costs, it is about access to a vast and evolving consumer base.

“With zero tariffs and a population of 1.4 billion, this is very attractive and presents an important opportunity,” said Joel Mwiti Kobia, managing director of Nutri Nuts and Fruits.

On March 23, Kenya flagged off its first consignment of goods to China under the zero-tariff arrangement. The shipment, which includes a total of 54 containers of fresh avocados, avocado oil, coffee and green beans, departed from Kenya’s capital Nairobi to the Port of Mombasa for onward shipment to China, according to Kenya’s Ministry of Investments, Trade and Industry.

Kobia said China’s rapidly expanding middle class is reshaping global consumption patterns, as rising incomes, urbanization and increasing health awareness are pushing consumers toward premium, nutritious foods, creating a fertile ground for African exports.

“African products, often marketed as natural, organic and sustainably sourced, are well positioned to meet this demand,” he stated.

Products such as macadamia nuts, avocados, tea and coffee are increasingly in demand, not just as commodities but as lifestyle products associated with wellness and quality.

Kobia’s company began exporting macadamia nuts to China in 2021 with just one container of about 16 metric tons. By last year, exports had surged to 120 tons annually, reflecting the rapid growth in Chinese demand.

“The consumption and demand of macadamia nuts in China, especially among the middle class, have been increasing.

“With tariffs set to fall from 15 percent to zero, we expect exports to more than double again, potentially reaching 250 tons in the near future,” he stated, adding that the development will create more jobs at the processing facilities and more income for farmers.

Margaret Njoki, head of commercial for fresh and frozen vegetables at Vertical Agro Group, also noted that avocado exporters are eyeing a breakthrough.

“We were the first company to export frozen avocados to China in 2021, and then fresh containers in 2022,” she said.

“What began as a tentative entry into a new market has quickly evolved, with China’s appetite for avocados growing significantly in just a few years, fueling optimism in Kenya’s booming avocado sector,” Njoki added.

In the last three years, she noted that the lucrative sector has benefited from the fast-growing Chinese market.

Her company currently exports dozens of containers during peak season, but she believes the real breakthrough will come with zero tariffs.

“I will be competing with Peru and Mexico, but if my prices go down, I will be able to export more in both quality and quantity to China,” she said, pointing out that the changes will allow her to work on her pricing more effectively.

Njoki expects the impact to ripple through the value chain, from exporters to farmers.

“People will be excited to grow more avocados. It will bring more money, more employment,” she noted.

While macadamia and avocado exporters have already made inroads into China, an unlikely optimism is building up among tea producers who have largely remained on the sidelines. Kenya is one of Africa’s biggest producers and exporters of tea, with the main destinations of export including European countries and some Asian countries such as Pakistan.

For Kelvin Mbugi of Kenya Tea Packers Limited, the zero-tariff policy will help Kenya’s tea open the world’s biggest market.

Price advantage

“Currently we are unable to export tea to China because we are not competitive in prices,” he said.

“However, with zero tariffs, we will now have a chance not only to deliver quality, but also to have a competitive advantage in pricing,” Mbugi said.

Kenyan tea exporters are betting on China’s growing interest in specialty and health-oriented teas. Products such as purple tea, which is rich in antioxidants and white tea, often marketed for anti-aging benefits, could appeal to China’s increasingly health-conscious consumers.

“We anticipate great demand and we are prepared to deliver,” he added.

Though it is still early, Mbugi noted that exports could gradually go up to 100 tons annually as the market develops.

For companies such as Kenya Nut Company Limited, the zero-tariff policy is also an opportunity to move beyond bulk exports and into branded, value-added products.

“We export premium macadamia, dried fruits and coffee to major markets,” Ngugi Njoroge, head of exports and imports, Kenya Nut Company Limited, said. “With zero tariffs, we are looking for strategic partnerships to penetrate the Chinese market.” This shift toward processed and branded goods is seen as critical for maximizing returns. Instead of exporting raw produce, companies are increasingly focusing on roasted nuts, packaged snacks and specialty coffee — products that align with China’s premium retail segment.

The opportunity is not limited to traditional food exports.

Manufacturers such as Irene Nzovo are exploring entry into China with niche products such as pet food, including dog snacks made from beef hides and camel products.

“With zero tariffs, it will enable us to get to the market because we will have more customers and bulk supplies,” she says, noting the company’s success in Europe and the United States.

By eliminating import duties, the zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries with which China has diplomatic relations, is expected to lower prices for Chinese consumers, increase the competitiveness of African products and stimulate export volumes.

Erick Rutto, president of the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, underlined the need to train smallholder farmers and exporters on adherence to China’s strict sanitary and phytosanitary requirements and meet international standards.

“They must also seek partnerships with financial institutions to help exporters access financing, enabling them to scale up production and export in bulk,” he said.

Zhang Chi contributed to this story.

Contact the writers at wangxiaodong@chinadaily.com.cn