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China can weather external shocks and keep driving global growth, economist says

By ZHAO JIA | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2026-03-30 19:30
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The China Public Diplomacy Association hosts a briefing under the theme of China's new development and new opportunities for the world as part of its "Linjia 7 Salon" series in Beijing on Monday. [Photo by Zhao Jia/chinadaily.com.cn]

China is fully capable of achieving growth of around 4.5 percent to 5 percent in 2026, and could do even better if major external shocks are avoided, economist Lin Yifu said, arguing that the country will remain a key driver of global growth in the years ahead.

Lin, professor and dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, made the remarks on Monday at a briefing under the theme of China's new development and new opportunities for the world, where he also addressed the economic fallout from the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

He said the fighting should end as soon as possible on humanitarian grounds, warning that a prolonged conflict could disrupt global energy supplies, drive up oil prices and, if sustained, trigger wider shocks to inflation and growth around the world.

China would not be immune, he said, but the impact would likely be more limited than in some other economies. He cited the country's diversified oil import sources, sufficient reserves and pricing arrangements that can help soften the pass-through from higher global crude prices to the domestic market.

Even with such risks, Lin said China is well placed to stay on course. He said the 4.5 percent to 5 percent growth target for 2026, set in the Government Work Report submitted to the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress in March, should be seen as a floor rather than a ceiling.

Barring major unforeseen shocks, China is fully capable of meeting that target and could outperform it, he said.

Part of that confidence, he said, comes from China's continued catch-up potential. With per capita GDP still below the levels of advanced economies, most Chinese industries remain in a catch-up phase, allowing the country to retain what he described as a latecomer advantage.

Lin also noted that China is entering this phase with advantages that many earlier catch-up economies did not have, including a large pool of science and engineering talent, a vast domestic market, strong manufacturing capacity and complete supply chains. Those strengths, he said, give the country a solid foundation for innovation and industrial upgrading.

He added that the current turmoil also underscores the strategic value of China's push into renewable energy. Advances in solar power, wind power and new energy vehicles are not only helping reduce vulnerability to external energy shocks, but are also creating new engines of growth and new export opportunities as more countries seek affordable low-carbon technologies.

Since 2008, China has contributed about 30 percent of global economic growth on average, Lin said. If it maintains steady expansion during the 2026-2030 period, he added, it will continue to serve as one of the world's principal growth engines.

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